College Football Week 1 Preview: Storylines, matchups and predictions for the five biggest games (2024)

• Georgia-Clemson: These top-15 teams square off in a matchup between the only active coaches with multiple national titles.

• Notre Dame-Texas A&M: New Texas A&M head coach Mike Elko faces his former quarterback in Riley Leonard.

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Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes

We’re so back.

After an unusually thrilling Week 0 where we saw a top-10 team go down (Florida State), it’s time for the rest of the college football landscape to kick their seasons off.

Here are the storylines to know, matchups to watch and predictions for the five biggest games of Week 1.

No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 14 Clemson Tigers (Noon ET on ABC)

Storyline to know: Matchup of the only current coaches with multiple national championships

Following Nick Saban’s retirement, Georgia’s Kirby Smart and Clemson’s Dabo Swinney stand alone as the only active coaches with multiple national titles on their resumes. However, the two seem to be going in opposite directions. Smart’s Bulldogs are currently the top-ranked team in the country and are looking for their third championship in four years. Swinney’s Tigers start the year just No. 14 in the opening poll, their lowest preseason ranking in a decade.

Current College Football Coaches with National Championships

Matchup to watch when Clemson has the ball: Cade Klubnik vs. All

The foundation of Clemson’s team is their elite defense and solid running game. They return three starting offensive linemen and their leading rusher Phil Mafah. Production from those spots should remain consistent, but it’s the passing game that looms as the biggest X-factor for the Tigers this season.

Quarterback Cade Klubnik struggled in his first season as Clemson’s starter, and there weren’t many bright spots to pick out when evaluating his performance.

*out of 95 FBS QBs with at least 300 dropbacks

Klubnik struggled across the board as a passer last season. He earned a 70.0 PFF passing grade in just two games and was lucky he didn’t turn the ball over more often. Opposing defenses dropped eight potential Klubnik interceptions last season, which tied for the most in the ACC and the second most in the Power Five. It certainly doesn’t help that his receivers finished 90th in receiving grade in the FBS. Clemson also ranked outside the top 60 in every aspect of offensive grading.

Contrast the struggles of Clemson’s passing game with Georgia’s Malaki Starks-led secondary that is bound to be very good, and the Tigers will surely want to win a low-scoring game that is played on the ground. One interesting trench matchup will see Clemson right tackle Blake Miller squaring off against excellent run defenders Mykel Williams and Warren Brinson.

Matchup to watch when Georgia has the ball: Georgia’s offensive line vs. Clemson’s defensive line

Georgia has PFF’s No. 2 offensive line in college football, while Clemson’s defensive line checked in at No. 9 of our rankings. This entire matchup promises to be a heavyweight bout, but extra attention should be paid to Peter Woods, the Tigers’ star sophom*ore. He earned an 87.6 PFF grade in 2023, the third-best mark by a true freshman interior defender since PFF began charting college football in 2014. The only ones above him are Dexter Lawrence and Ed Oliver, two of the 25 best defensive tackles in the NFL right now.

Woods will face his toughest test yet against Georgia’s interior offensive line, which features two of college football's 10 best interior offensive linemen in guards Tate Ratledge and Dylan Fairchild. Last season, they were two of the Power Five’s top-four guards in pass-blocking grade.

Predictions

Max: Georgia 31, Clemson 20

Clemson’s defense puts up enough of a fight to make this an interesting game, but Carson Beck ultimately leads the Bulldogs to victory.

Dalton: Georgia 27, Clemson 10

This game may not be as low-scoring as Georgia’s 10-3 victory over the Tigers in 2021, but it will be a defensive slugfest. The Bulldogs have the better offense by a good margin, though. They start their season with a smooth victory.

No. 8 Penn State Nittany Lions at West Virginia Mountaineers (Noon ET on FOX)

Storyline to know: Two teams looking to prove something

This is a critical Year 12 for James Franklin at Penn State. With the College Football Playoff expanding to 12 teams, he will be expected to bring the Nittany Lions to the field every year. If not, his seat will start to get warmer.

It won’t be an easy first game for Franklin in 2024. He and Penn State will be heading to Morgantown in a hostile environment against a West Virginia team that’s coming off its best season in seven years. While the Mountaineers weren’t ranked in the preseason AP poll, they were No. 25 in PFF’s initial ranking, thanks to most of an explosive offense returning.

Matchup to watch when West Virginia has the ball: How can the Mountaineers create explosive plays?

Last year’s opening matchup between these two teams turned into a Big Ten-style slugfest in which the Nittany Lions made Garrett Greene and the Mountaineers methodically work down the field. That’s certainly not ideal for West Virginia, as they are one of the more explosive teams in college football.

West Virginia created just three 20-plus-yard plays in last year’s matchup, two of which came in the fourth quarter with the game well out of reach. Penn State did an excellent job of giving Greene different looks. He and his receivers struggled specifically when Penn State ran man coverage.

West Virginia vs. Man and Zone in 2023

West Virginia needs its weapons to win man-to-man matchups, and Greene needs to get them the ball, if the Mountaineers are going to upset Penn State and its ferocious defense. The Nittany Lions generally blitzed in front of their man coverage and made Greene rush his decision-making. Greene was far more likely to scramble when he saw man coverage last season, yet that played into Penn State’s hands, with athletic players such as Abdul Carter waiting for him.

West Virginia actually ran the ball reasonably well in this game last season, but they have to find ways to create downfield shots.

Matchup to watch when Penn State has the ball: Will Andy Kotelnicki be enough to fix Drew Allar's supporting cast?

When Penn State’s offense faltered in big games last year, most of the blame was unfairly placed on its sophom*ore quarterback. Allar was far from the problem on the Nittany Lions’ offense, posting an 86.3 PFF overall grade — a top-20 mark in the nation. He was instead hamstrung by his environment, as Penn State placed just 81st in team receiving grade and 58th in pass-blocking grade. Offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich was fired before the season even ended and Kansas’ Andy Kotelnicki was brought in to replace him.

Kotelnicki’s offense at Kansas, one that uses every blade of grass available and relies on motion more than any other program, was extremely efficient last season. The Jayhawks finished fifth among FBS teams in EPA per play and trailed only LSU, Oregon and Georgia among Power Five schools. Kansas also finished with the third-best receiving grade in college football despite not having a room filled with future NFL draft picks like Washington and Oregon, the two schools above them. That’s important because the Nittany Lions lost their top two wide receivers, KeAndre Lambert-Smith and Dante Cephas, to the transfer portal and three of their starting offensive linemen were drafted into the NFL.

With the supporting cast for Allar looking the same, if not worse, the pressure is on Kotelnicki to work his magic and win off scheme like he often did at Kansas.

Predictions

Max: Penn State 30, West Virginia 24

West Virginia gives Penn State a scare early before the Nittany Lions’ defense settles in. Kotelnicki and Allar also take some time to get going but find their rhythm in the nick of time to win the game.

Dalton: Penn State 27, West Virginia 23

There are a ton of variables that could affect this matchup. Jahiem White didn’t play in this game last year. Penn State has two new coordinators. Garrett Greene has a year of starting experience under his belt. At the end of the day, Penn State’s defense is the best unit on the field. They’ll make just enough plays to win a tight game.

No. 19 Miami (FL) Hurricanes at Florida Gators (3:30 P.M. ET on ABC)

Storyline to know: Two coaches who need this win badly

Both these teams have head coaches heading into their third seasons on the hot seat. Mario Cristobal has just a 12-13 record across his first two years at Miami, the Hurricanes’ worst two-season stretch in 15 years. Billy Napier is 11-14 at Florida, the Gators’ worst two-year stretch since the 1970s.

With an elite portal class coming in, Miami is expected to compete for an ACC championship. Florida, meanwhile, is desperate to find wins any way they can against the toughest schedule in college football. The Gators must play eight of the top-20 teams in the preseason AP poll, including the Hurricanes.

Matchup to watch when Miami (FL) has the ball: Cam Ward vs. Florida's secondary, especially late in plays

Perhaps the most fascinating storyline of the week is the new Miami Hurricanes offense. Transfer players like Cam Ward, Damien Martinez and Samuel Brown make up a large part of a new core that hopes to win an ACC title. Ward has the most pressure on him as the leader of that group.

There are plenty of highs and lows in Ward’s game. At times, he dazzles with vertical throws. Then, there are moments when he is too loose with the football in an effort to make big plays. When he played within structure last season, he was one of the best quarterbacks in college football.

Ward excels when he clearly sees where he wants to go pre-snap and fires the football where it needs to go. His 90.3 PFF passing grade on throws under 2.5 seconds ranked second in college football last season behind Oregon’s Bo Nix. However, on throws that came at or after the 2.5-second mark, he ranked among the 20 worst passers in the nation. He also has a bad tendency to fumble in those scenarios, doing so 46 times across his four college seasons.

A similar lack of execution late in plays is something that also plagued the Florida Gators’ coverage unit last season. It was one of many issues for a team that finished ahead of only Vanderbilt in the SEC in coverage grade.

Florida Coverage Metrics on Plays 2.5 Seconds or Longer

Mental mistakes and blown coverages were a theme for the Gators last season. Too many of those mistakes turned into explosive plays for their opponents. They’ll have problems with Hurricanes wide receiver Xavier Restrepo, who has a very natural feel for manipulating leverage and finding soft spots in coverage.

Let's circle all of this back to Cam Ward. He needs to do two things: 1) Hold onto the football when he breaks the pocket, and 2) find Xavier Restrepo when he gets into trouble. If he improved his late-play habits since arriving in Coral Gables, it could be a long day for the Gators’ defense.

Matchup to watch when Florida has the ball: Florida’s offensive line vs. Miami’s defensive line

Florida fielded the eighth-highest-graded offensive line in the Power Five last season and returned three starters to that unit, including one of the nation’s best centers in Jake Slaughter. However, he and the Gators front-five face arguably their toughest test of the season in the opening game.

Miami boasts PFF’s No. 3 defensive line in college football and has the deepest edge room, too. The best of the bunch is true sophom*ore Rueben Bain Jr. His 89.3 pass-rushing grade in 2023 was the second-best mark by a Power Five true freshman since PFF began grading college in 2014, trailing only Myles Garrett.

Starting opposite of him will be former Tennessee edge defender Tyler Baron. He ranked sixth among SEC edge defenders in pressures (41) last year. The Hurricanes also added Marshall edge defender Elijah Alston from the portal. His 91.3 PFF overall grade last year ranked third among all edge defenders in the nation. Akheem Mesidor missed all but two games this past season due to a foot injury but placed fifth among Power Five edge defenders the year before in PFF overall grade (87.2). Miami is set up nicely on the interior, as well, with a few transfers in Simeon Barrow, CJ Clark and Marley Cook.

Predictions

Max: Miami 31, Florida 24

Miami wins in the trenches on both sides of the ball while Cam Ward and company take advantage of a vulnerable Florida secondary.

Dalton: Miami 34, Florida 27

As long as Cam Ward stays away from turnovers, Miami should win this game. Xavier Restrepo and the Hurricanes’ defensive line make the difference in a raucous environment.

No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 20 Texas A&M Aggies (7:30 P.M. ET on ABC)

Storyline to know: The battle between Duke’s leaders from last season

While the Blue Devils don’t play in this game, their presence will surely be felt. After firing Jimbo Fisher in November, Texas A&M hired Duke’s Mike Elko to be its next head coach. His quarterback during his two years in Durham, Riley Leonard, transferred to Notre Dame about two weeks after Elko took the job. The two will now face off in primetime in Week 1.

Matchup to watch when Texas A&M has the ball: Who wins the middle of the field?

Notre Dame was one of college football's best teams at guarding the outer parts of the field in 2023. They had a tremendous pair of cornerbacks in Cam Hart, an eventual NFL draft pick, and Benjamin Morrison, a potential first-round pick in next year’s draft. Hart is gone, but Morrison and Xavier Watts, the FBS leader in interceptions, remain.

One of the few things Notre Dame didn’t excel at was coverage over the middle of the field. They certainly weren’t horrible in that area, but they also weren’t quite as elite as they were in their perimeter coverage. In particular, the Fighting Irish had a soft spot when their slot defenders were targeted.

Notre Dame’s outside cornerbacks finished with a 90.6 PFF coverage grade in 2023, ranking second in the Power Five behind Alabama. Conversely, the team’s 69.6 slot coverage grade tied for 66th in the FBS. Meanwhile, Texas A&M owned the seventh-best slot receiving grade in the nation in 2023, and Aggies quarterback Conner Weigman is particularly good at throwing over the middle of the field.

Two players to watch who could alleviate this problem for the Irish are Northwestern transfer Rod Heard II and Arizona State transfer Jordan Clark. Heard played the second-most slot snaps in the nation last season while posting a top-20 slot coverage grade. Clark also played significantly for the Sun Devils and posted a solid 67.2 coverage grade from that alignment.

The Aggies also lost their primary slot receiver, Ainias Smith, to the 2024 NFL Draft, so there will be new faces matching up on both sides of the ball. Whoever wins that battle could find themselves victorious in a huge game.

Matchup to watch when Notre Dame has the ball: What does Elko do to throw off Leonard?

If there’s anyone who knows how to defend Riley Leonard, it’s his former head coach, who comes from a defensive background.

Leonard’s best attribute is his mobility. His 87.2 PFF rushing grade since 2022 is tied for fourth among Power Five quarterbacks, and his 1,164 rushing yards in that span are the eighth most.

Elko would be smart to have one of his linebackers spy Leonard all night, perhaps star sophom*ore Taurean York. Texas A&M would also be wise to sit back in coverage instead of sending the house. Among 100 Power Five signal-callers over the past two years, Leonard ranks 14th in PFF grade against the blitz and just 57th when there isn’t a blitz. He loves to attack one-on-one matchups down the field, as 15 of his 20 big-time throws came against single coverage.

The Aggies also have a very strong defensive line, headlined by Nic Scourton — PFF’s top edge rusher in the 2025 NFL Draft. The Fighting Irish, meanwhile, are starting three new offensive linemen, including a true freshman at left tackle in Anthonie Knapp. Texas A&M will likely be able to get home on Leonard even if they only send four defenders at him.

If the Aggies take away Leonard’s legs and force him to make throws downfield into heavy coverage, they’ll be set up very nicely.

Predictions

Max: Notre Dame 24, Texas A&M 23

Notre Dame barely outlasts Texas A&M in a defensive slugfest.

Dalton: Notre Dame 23, Texas A&M 17

This game has all the makings of a slugfest with two defensive head coaches in the spotlight. We’ve yet to see Conner Weigman tear up an elite defense. Notre Dame’s will be too much for him to handle.

No. 13 LSU Tigers vs. No. 23 USC Trojans (Sunday, 7:30 P.M. ET on ABC)

Storyline to know: Replacing the past two Heisman winners and the top two picks of the 2024 NFL Draft

The Trojans and Tigers are in very similar boats. They each must replace their Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks who were the first two picks in the 2024 NFL Draft (Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels). USC’s Miller Moss and LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier will try to fill their massive shoes after each spending the past three years on the bench.

Matchup to watch when LSU has the ball: USC’s transfer acquisitions vs. LSU’s explosive offense

It’s no secret that USC’s downfall last season was its defense. The unit finished the season ranked 78th in the FBS in defensive grade and played even worse as Pac-12 play wore on.

The Trojans overhauled the coaching staff on that side of the ball, starting with their hiring of UCLA defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn, who turned the Bruins’ defense into an elite unit. Good coaching can’t happen without a foundation of talent, though, and the Trojans brought in plenty of it via the transfer portal.

USC Defensive Transfers | 2023 PFF Overall Grades

USC had just three defensive players last season who played at least 400 snaps and earned at least a 70.0 PFF overall grade. All three departed for the NFL. Luckily, there are four such players in the above group as well as several other talented players.

The secondary will be a particular focus after Lynn brought Kamari Ramsey and John Humphrey with him from UCLA. Akili Arnold was one of the best players on a very good Oregon State team, and Vance contributed to a top-flight Florida State defense. How quickly these players can cohere will be crucial to their success against LSU’s explosive offense.

Gone are Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., but the Tigers remain a threat with Garrett Nussmeier at the helm. Nussmeier is a pocket passer who loves to throw vertically. He owns one of the best big-time throw rates in college football over the past three seasons, albeit on a relatively small sample size. LSU brought in Liberty transfer CJ Daniels to pair with players like Kyren Lacy and Chris Hilton Jr.

Matchup to watch when USC has the ball: Can Miller Moss take advantage of a vulnerable LSU secondary?

If LSU didn’t drastically improve its pass defense from 2023, Miller Moss could have a field day. Last year, the Tigers ranked just 92nd in team coverage grade and saw Maason Smith and Mekhi Wingo, their top two defensive tackles, get drafted. LSU did make some moves this offseason to help in that department, namely hiring Missouri’s Blake Baker at defensive coordinator.

It won’t be easy for him in his first game with the Tigers. Lincoln Riley has had one of the Power Five’s 10 most efficient offenses in EPA per play since becoming Oklahoma’s offensive coordinator in 2015. While Moss might not be a No. 1 overall pick like his predecessor, he will likely stick to the script more than Williams did.

Predictions

Max: USC 34, LSU 31

In what should be a shootout, I trust Riley and Moss against LSU’s defense a bit more than Nussmeier against what should be an improved USC defense.

Dalton: USC 35, LSU 27

LSU has question marks all over with the loss of their superstar players and serious issues on defense that could carry into this season. The Trojans aren’t as loaded as they’ve been in past years, but Lincoln Riley always finds offense. He and Miller Moss get the job done against the Tigers.